Trends and group differences in the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality: implications for understanding education's causal influence

摘要

Has the shape of the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality changed in\udrecent decades? If so, is it changing consistently across demographic groups? What can changes in the\udshape of the association tell us about the possible mechanisms in play for improving health and lowering\udmortality risk over the adult life course? This paper develops the argument that societal technological\udchange may have had profound effects on the importance of educational attainment e particularly\udadvanced education e in the U.S. adult population for garnering health advantages and that these\udchanges should be reflected in changes in the functional form of the association between educational\udattainment and mortality. We review the historical evidence on the changing functional form of the\udassociation, drawing on studies based in the United States, to assess whether these changes are\udconsistent with our argument about the role of technological change. We also provide an updated\udanalysis of these functional form patterns and trends, contrasting data from the early 21st Century with\uddata from the late 20th Century. This updated evidence suggests that the shape of the association between\udeducational attainment and U.S. adult mortality appears to be reflecting lower and lower adult\udmortality for very highly educated Americans compared to their low-educated counterparts in the 21st\udCentury. We draw on this review and updated evidence to reflect on the question whether education's\udassociation with adult mortality has become increasingly causal in recent decades, why, and the potential\udresearch, policy, and global implications of these changes.